Independent equity research
Is Micron Technology (MU) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Micron Technology — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL
Fair value
$644.00
To fair value
−29%
By · report dated 2026-10-25 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Micron is earning peak-cycle profits: as its own new fabs in Idaho, Taiwan and Japan and its rivals' greenfield capacity reach the market from late 2027, memory prices fall and its operating margin returns to about 35% by fiscal 2031, so a price that needs a 61% long-run margin will not hold
How we value it
We value Micron Technology using DCF of free cash flow to the firm, 10-year class, mid-cycle margin 35%, stable margin 30.0%. The fair value as of the report date is set from that estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price. A 12-month value of $724.00 is shown beside it, by formula.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Our own estimates, beside the consensus
- One valuation, with its inputs and a multiple as a cross-check
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Micron Technology report
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