Is Micron Technology (MU) a Buy, Hold or Sell?

Micron Technology — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.

SELL

12-mo fair value

$700.00

To fair value

−28%

By José Luis Pascual, CFA · report dated 2026-08-09 · fair value derived independently of the market price.

The thesis, in brief

Micron's record earnings are 82% a price-per-bit spike against a cash cost base that has not moved rather than volume growth, so as Strategic Customer Agreement coverage rises from 40% toward 50% of revenue those price bands cap the peak as surely as they floor the trough while $58-66bn a year of capex builds a $30-42bn annual depreciation burden — making mid-cycle EPS nearer $69 than the $155 consensus carries for FY27, and the equity worth about $700

How we value it

We value Micron Technology using Probability-weighted five-path DCF, WACC 13.85%, g 2.5%; cross-checked on mid-cycle EBITDA and EPS. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.

What the full report covers

Business & moat + industry cycle
Earnings quality & normalized EPS
Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
Balance-sheet safety
Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
Bear / base / bull fair values
Earnings-call analysis
Insider activity & positioning
Technicals (RSI / ADX)
A falsifiable thesis

Read the full Micron Technology report

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