Independent equity research
Is Nebius Group (NBIS) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Nebius Group — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$130.00
To fair value
−42%
By · report dated 2026-08-13 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At $255 Nebius discounts roughly $90-140bn of 2035 revenue - AWS scale - against our $68bn base built on $22.5m/MW contract economics and 5-year GPU lives; we are wrong if the 2027 guide lands above $15bn and short-duration pricing keeps rising rather than deflating as Rubin supply arrives
How we value it
We value Nebius Group using 10-yr DCF on unlevered FCF after SBC, WACC 12.0%, g 3.0%. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Nebius Group report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.