Independent equity research
Is Netflix (NFLX) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Netflix — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$76.00
To fair value
+8%
Report dated 2026-07-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Quality compounder de-rated from ~50x to ~18x fwd, but heavy content reinvestment keeps FCF below reported profit, so on cash it's fairly valued (not cheap). Buyer in the low-$60s or on an ad/FCF inflection
How we value it
We value Netflix using FCF/DCF 10y (9.5% WACC) + P/E. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Netflix report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus 38 other names. One subscription, cancel anytime.