Independent equity research
Is Northrop Grumman (NOC) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Northrop Grumman — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$560.00
To fair value
+3%
Report dated 2026-07-26 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Cheapest prime (19x) post -30% de-rate, record $105bn backlog, but FCF the problem child (H1 cash-negative, capex up, buybacks halted). Buy low-$500s
How we value it
We value Northrop Grumman using P/E on 2027E adj EPS + 7-yr FCF/DCF (two WACCs). The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Northrop Grumman report
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