Is NVR, Inc. (NVR) a Buy, Hold or Sell?

NVR, Inc. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.

BUY (accumulate)

12-mo fair value

$7,000.00

To fair value

+9%

Report dated 2026-07-25 · fair value derived independently of the market price.

The thesis, in brief

BUY(accumulate)/$7,000 (+9%) on Q2'26. Best-in-class capital-LIGHT homebuilder (34% ROE=3x peers, net cash, no div, shares −27%/6yr) at cyclical trough (−26% off high). Trailing P/E ~16.7x looks full only on TROUGH EPS; right lenses point above spot: clean FCF/DCF ~$7,300-8,300, justified P/B ~$7,000-7,200 (normalized ~27.5% ROE), consensus $7,148. Q2 orders +9%/backlog +9% (volume resilient) but HB gross margin 19.2% (−230bps=the give). No earnings call/no guidance. FMP 2026 rev corrupted->used SEC 8-K. Accumulate deeper on $5,400-5,800. Medium conviction (cyclical, TV-heavy DCF)

How we value it

We value NVR, Inc. using P/E (mid-cycle) + justified P/B-vs-ROE + FCF/DCF. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.

What the full report covers

Business & moat + industry cycle
Earnings quality & normalized EPS
Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
Balance-sheet safety
Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
Bear / base / bull fair values
Earnings-call analysis
Insider activity & positioning
Technicals (RSI / ADX)
A falsifiable thesis

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