Independent equity research
Is Oracle (ORCL) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Oracle — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$130.00
To fair value
−13%
By · report dated 2026-08-14 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Oracle's $638bn backlog is real, but FY26 incremental ROIC was 4.8% against a 10.5% WACC, and at $154 the market discounts our base case at 9.3% - below what a BBB- issuer with negative free cash flow deserves; we value the equity at $130 and would reduce into the 35% rally off the July low
How we value it
We value Oracle using Prob-weighted 10-yr owner-FCF DCF (after SBC), WACC 10.5%, g 3.0%; fwd EV/EBITDA check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Oracle report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.