Independent equity research
Is Occidental Petroleum (OXY) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Occidental Petroleum — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$60.00
To fair value
−2%
By · report dated 2026-08-15 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Occidental's $4bn-by-2030 cash-flow plan is roughly one-third financing arithmetic, and with the $8.3bn Berkshire preferred restored to enterprise value the shares already trade at ~6.3x our 2027 EBITDA, in line with peers; upside needs $80 oil, not the plan
How we value it
We value Occidental Petroleum using Unlevered FCFF DCF on mid-cycle oil, cross-checked on preferred-adjusted EV/EBITDA. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Occidental Petroleum report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.