Independent equity research
Is Palantir (PLTR) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Palantir — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$127.00
To fair value
−24%
By · report dated 2026-08-11 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Palantir is compounding faster than any software company on record, but at $175 the equity discounts a ~31% unlevered FCF CAGR for ten years; my base case clears only $105 and fails to reach spot at any WACC between 9% and 12.5% or terminal growth between 2% and 4%
How we value it
We value Palantir using Probability-weighted 15-year unlevered DCF; spot requires a 31% ten-year FCF CAGR. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Palantir report
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