Independent equity research
Is Qualcomm (QCOM) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Qualcomm — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
Fair value
$160.00
12-mo figure
To fair value
−11%
By · report dated 2026-09-05 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Qualcomm at 15.3x FY2027E non-GAAP EPS is not expensive, but the FY2027 story is a data-centre line that does not yet exist at scale: strip it out and revenue FALLS 4%. We are wrong if data-centre revenue clears USD 3bn in FY2027 or the Apple modem transition slows materially
How we value it
We value Qualcomm using Probability-weighted 5-yr DCF (25/50/25 bear/base/bull) to FY2031; WACC 10.7%, terminal g 2.75%. The fair value (a 12-month figure under the method then in force) is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Qualcomm report
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