Independent equity research
Is Rheinmetall (RHM) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Rheinmetall — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€1,270.00
To fair value
+28%
By · report dated 2026-09-03 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Rheinmetall's de-rating is a verdict on cash conversion, not on the order book: at 19.8x 2027 consensus earnings against a 24.2x European defence peer median the shares already discount failure, and we expect the second-half prepayment reversal to lift 2026 operating free cash flow back above EUR 1bn
How we value it
We value Rheinmetall using Ten-year DCF at 8.5% WACC; EV/EBIT 27E and P/E 27E cross-checks vs six defence primes. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Rheinmetall report
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