Independent equity research
Is RTX Corp (RTX) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
RTX Corp — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL
Fair value
$79.70
To fair value
−60%
By · report dated 2026-10-26 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
RTX's record USD 340bn backlog lifts sales but not margins enough: we expect the published operating margin to reach only about 13% by 2030, far short of the 36.6% stable margin that today's USD 191 price implies, so the shares are worth USD 79.7 and we are wrong if the margin passes 16% by 2028
How we value it
We value RTX Corp using DCF of free cash flow to the firm, 5-year class, stable margin 13.0%. The fair value as of the report date is set from that estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price. A 12-month value of $85.00 is shown beside it, by formula.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Our own estimates, beside the consensus
- One valuation, with its inputs and a multiple as a cross-check
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full RTX Corp report
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