Independent equity research
Is SAP SE (SAP) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
SAP SE — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€220.00
To fair value
+24%
By · report dated 2026-08-23 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
SAP's cloud backlog re-accelerated to +26% while ROIC doubled to 17.7% against an 8.5% cost of capital, and at a 4.7% free-cash-flow yield the market prices only 3.8% perpetual growth; we are wrong if cloud gross margin falls again on 21 October and the 80-90% opex formula breaks
How we value it
We value SAP SE using Ten-year unlevered DCF, cross-checked on 2027E P/E and EV/FCF vs six software peers. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full SAP SE report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.