Independent equity research
Is Sandoz Group (SDZ) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Sandoz Group — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
CHF 58.00
To fair value
−13%
By · report dated 2026-09-04 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
The biosimilar mix shift is real - 32.5% of H1 2026 sales, +20% cc - and carries core EBITDA margin toward the 24-26% 2028 target. But discounting Sandoz's dollar flows at a proper 8.0% dollar WACC values them at CHF 58; at 15.8x TTM core EBITDA and a 2.19% statutory FCF yield the shares have already paid for the plan
How we value it
We value Sandoz Group using Prob-weighted DCF 30/50/20 at 7.996% USD WACC on a US 10Y risk-free; cross-check 14x 2027E core EBITDA. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Sandoz Group report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.