Is SpaceX (Space Exploration) (SPCX) a Buy, Hold or Sell?

SpaceX (Space Exploration) — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.

SELL

12-mo fair value

$50.00

To fair value

−67%

By José Luis Pascual, CFA · report dated 2026-08-09 · fair value derived independently of the market price.

The thesis, in brief

SpaceX at $133.11 discounts a 49.6-57.4% annual revenue CAGR every year to 2035 — revenue of $1.5-2.4 trillion — while the last $27.1bn of invested capital produced a larger operating loss and a best-case 10.1% pre-tax, pre-depreciation incremental return against a 15.00% cost of capital; I expect the stock to trade to roughly $50 within twelve months and I am wrong if FY2027 revenue reaches $100bn or if quarterly free cash flow turns positive before FY2029

How we value it

We value SpaceX (Space Exploration) using Probability-weighted 10-yr FCFF/DCF, 15.0% proprietary WACC blended 60/40 with the 12.1% consensus WACC. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.

What the full report covers

Business & moat + industry cycle
Earnings quality & normalized EPS
Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
Balance-sheet safety
Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
Bear / base / bull fair values
Earnings-call analysis
Insider activity & positioning
Technicals (RSI / ADX)
A falsifiable thesis

Read the full SpaceX (Space Exploration) report

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