Independent equity research
Is SpaceX (Space Exploration) (SPCX) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
SpaceX (Space Exploration) — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL
Fair value
$26.00
To fair value
−82%
By · report dated 2026-10-26 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
SpaceX's price assumes AI compute keeps earning scarcity prices for years; we expect SI revenue per installed watt to fall from about USD 27 a watt-year in 2027 to USD 16 by 2030 as chip and power supply catch up, and we are wrong if it is still above USD 25 in 2028 with more than 11 GW installed
How we value it
We value SpaceX (Space Exploration) using DCF of free cash flow to the firm, 5-year class, stable margin 20.0%. The fair value as of the report date is set from that estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price. A 12-month value of $28.30 is shown beside it, by formula.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Our own estimates, beside the consensus
- One valuation, with its inputs and a multiple as a cross-check
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full SpaceX (Space Exploration) report
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