Independent equity research
Is Telefónica, S.A. (TEF) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Telefónica, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€4.45
To fair value
+32%
By · report dated 2026-09-15 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Telefonica has exited seven of eight Hispanoamerica markets and now funds a EUR0.15 dividend out of ~EUR3.0bn of 2026 free cash flow, so net debt/EBITDAaL should reach 2.5x by 2028; we are wrong if group adjusted EBITDAaL stalls or Virgin Media O2, at 5.8x, needs equity
How we value it
We value Telefónica, S.A. using Sum-of-the-parts on 2026E EBITDA, Spain at 5.75x the swing multiple. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Telefónica, S.A. report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.