Independent equity research
Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Tesla, Inc. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce)
12-mo fair value
$255.00
To fair value
−19%
Report dated 2026-07-24 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
SELL(reduce)/$255 on Q2 2026. SOTP: core auto+energy+services ~$90-115/sh; ~$220/sh is robotaxi/Optimus option priced near-certain. ROIC~3%<WACC, Q2 FCF -$1.1bn, zero insider buys
How we value it
We value Tesla, Inc. using Sum-of-the-parts + optionality. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Tesla, Inc. report
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