Independent equity research
Is The Trade Desk (TTD) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
The Trade Desk — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$12.00
To fair value
−16%
By · report dated 2026-08-10 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
TTD's slowdown is share loss, not macro: it grew 3% in Q2 2026 while the SSPs clearing the same open-internet auctions grew 11% (MGNI) and 10.5% (PUBM), and its -12% Q3 guide laps a comp with no political spend. Falsified if Q4 2026 revenue growth turns positive ex-political with gross margin back above 77%
How we value it
We value The Trade Desk using Probability-weighted 10-yr DCF on unlevered owner FCF (SBC expensed), WACC 11.0%, terminal g 2.5%. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full The Trade Desk report
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