Independent equity research
Is TotalEnergies SE (TTE) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
TotalEnergies SE — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (trim into strength)
12-mo fair value
€74.50
To fair value
−5%
By · report dated 2026-08-26 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Best operator, fully-priced stock: at 5.1x EV/EBITDA and 1.52x book TotalEnergies sits at the top of its own eight-year range on windfall Hormuz earnings, and with Brent already $86.66 against a $104 second quarter we expect FY27 EBITDA and the multiple to de-rate together
How we value it
We value TotalEnergies SE using 10-yr owner-FCF DCF, WACC 9.5%, g 2.0%; cross-checked on SOTP, mid-cycle EV/EBITDA and justified P/E. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full TotalEnergies SE report
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