Independent equity research
Is UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
UniCredit S.p.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€88.00
To fair value
+3%
By · report dated 2026-08-22 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At 2.0x tangible book UniCredit already capitalises a permanent 18.2% return on tangible equity, so the shares only work if consolidating Commerzbank lifts group returns rather than diluting them; if cost of risk normalises toward 45bp or ECB approval slips past 1Q27, the 2027 EPS bridge breaks
How we value it
We value UniCredit S.p.A. using Excess-return on TNAV (COE 10.3%) + justified P/TBV and P/E cross-checks. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full UniCredit S.p.A. report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.