Independent equity research
Is Unicaja Banco, S.A. (UNI) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Unicaja Banco, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€3.61
To fair value
+1%
By · report dated 2026-09-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At EUR 3.60, 1.47x June TBV, Unicaja already prices our own path - ROTE rising from 11% in 2026 to 13% by 2032 at a 9.1% cost of equity - so the ~7% cash yield is the return; the call breaks if 2027 NII tops EUR 1.65bn (toward our EUR 4.24 bull) or falls below EUR 1.52bn (toward our EUR 2.81 bear)
How we value it
We value Unicaja Banco, S.A. using Excess-return (residual income) on our ROTE path, COE 9.1%, g 2%, 2H26-2032E. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Unicaja Banco, S.A. report
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