Independent equity research
Is USA Rare Earth (USAR) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
USA Rare Earth — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$11.00
To fair value
−28%
By · report dated 2026-08-11 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At ~$7.8bn fully diluted USAR prices in near-full delivery of consensus 2029 revenue, yet on our numbers the platform earns only 5-10% ROIC at full build-out against a 12.6% WACC and its sole operating unit ran a negative gross margin in Q2; we are wrong if Serra Verde discloses sustainable EBITDA above ~$450m
How we value it
We value USA Rare Earth using Prob-weighted NAV/DCF to 2033 on owner FCF; cross-check 2029E EV/EBITDA. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full USA Rare Earth report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.