Independent equity research
Is Vistra (VST) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Vistra — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
Fair value
$139.00
12-mo figure
To fair value
−2%
By · report dated 2026-08-15 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At $148 Vistra already discounts management delivering the top of its 2027 guidance plus Cogentrix and Meta; our FCF path at a 9.5% WACC supports $139, and the thesis breaks if the Q3 call resets 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $8.5bn rather than to the low end management has flagged
How we value it
We value Vistra using DCF on guidance-reconciled adjusted EBITDA; forward EV/EBITDA peer cross-check. The fair value (a 12-month figure under the method then in force) is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Vistra report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.