Independent equity research
Is Walmart (WMT) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Walmart — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$84.00
To fair value
−22%
By · report dated 2026-08-20 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Walmart's 1.4% owner-FCF yield needs owner free cash flow to compound near 15% a year for a decade to justify $104; with capex at 4% of sales we model ~8%, and we are wrong if FY27 free cash flow grows double digits as guided and capex intensity falls below 3.5%
How we value it
We value Walmart using Justified 25.5x fwd P/E on NTM EPS; 10-yr owner-FCF DCF as cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Walmart report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.