Independent equity research
Is PetroChina (601857) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
PetroChina — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
¥12.00
To fair value
+7%
By · report dated 2026-09-01 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At CNY 11.43 PetroChina already discounts USD 88 Brent, and China's 20-40% Special Oil Gain Levy takes the marginal barrel above USD 85, so the 5.1% covered yield — not the oil price — is what an A-share buyer is paid for; we are wrong if FY2027 EPS clears CNY 1.10
How we value it
We value PetroChina using EV/DACF and EV/EBITDA led, P/E and yield cross-checks, FCF DCF on a stated Brent deck. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full PetroChina report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.