Independent equity research
Is China Construction Bank (601939) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
China Construction Bank — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
¥13.80
To fair value
+25%
By · report dated 2026-09-01 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
CCB's Shanghai A-share at 0.80x tangible book earns 9.84% ROTCE against our 8.12% cost of equity with 5.2pp of excess CET1 now flowing out as a rising payout, so it is worth ~1x forward tangible book (CNY 13.80); wrong if through-cycle credit cost exceeds ~95bp or the H1 bond windfall was borrowed
How we value it
We value China Construction Bank using Excess-return/DDM on ROTCE vs 8.12% cost of equity; justified P/TBV and peer P/TBV-vs-ROTCE cross-checks. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full China Construction Bank report
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