Independent equity research
Is Air Liquide (AI) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Air Liquide — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
€152.00
To fair value
−9%
By · report dated 2026-09-02 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At 14.5x 2026E EBITDA, 2.8 turns above its own 11-year mean, the shares discount the whole published margin plan plus 4.8% perpetual growth on a ROCE flat at 11% for three straight periods. We are wrong if the 5 October plan lifts margin ambition above 24% or start-ups push recurring ROCE through 12.5% by end-2027
How we value it
We value Air Liquide using Ten-year FCFF DCF on backlog conversion, WACC 6.80%, g 2.5%; EV/EBITDA and reverse-DCF cross-checks. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Air Liquide report
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