Independent equity research
Is AppLovin (APP) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
AppLovin — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$350.00
To fair value
+12%
By · report dated 2026-08-07 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
AppLovin's Q2 miss reset the growth anchor from a 50%+ run-rate to management's new "roughly 30% annually" guide, and at $335.67 the stock already discounts that outcome at a fair 12.75% cost of capital — the thesis breaks if Q3 revenue lands below the guided $2.055B floor or adj. EBITDA margin slips under 83%, confirming that model-uplift-driven growth is structurally decelerating rather than merely mis-timed
How we value it
We value AppLovin using 10-yr FCF/DCF at 12.75% proprietary WACC (60% weight; $342) cross-checked against 18x FY27E normalized EPS of $19.25 and 14x EV/FY27E adj. EBITDA (40%; $347-371). The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full AppLovin report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.