Independent equity research
Is AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
AST SpaceMobile — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL
12-mo fair value
$24.00
To fair value
−60%
By · report dated 2026-09-05 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At $62 the market pays our full bull case - 90-plus satellites, $14bn of 2035 revenue at 60% EBITDA margins - and nothing for the 80% of paths that fall short; we are wrong if AST has 45 BlueBirds in orbit by mid-2027 and books more than $700m of 2027 revenue
How we value it
We value AST SpaceMobile using Probability-weighted DCF to 2035, WACC 13.5%, g 3.0%, 405m FD shares. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full AST SpaceMobile report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.