Independent equity research
Is Estée Lauder (EL) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Estée Lauder — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL
12-mo fair value
$55.00
To fair value
−45%
By · report dated 2026-09-03 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
The FY26 turnaround is real but now over-priced: at 30.4x FY27E adjusted EPS the market discounts our base-case owner FCF at 5.8%, and FY27 guided owner FCF of about USD 0.41bn will not cover the USD 0.51bn dividend; we look for a de-rating to USD 55 unless FY27 operating margin beats the 13.5% top of guidance
How we value it
We value Estée Lauder using 10-yr DCF on owner FCF (after SBC), WACC 8.9%, g 2.0%; 70/30 blend with peer fwd P/E 23.7x. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Estée Lauder report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.