Independent equity research
Is International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. (IAG) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€7.09
To fair value
+42%
By · report dated 2026-09-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At EUR 4.90 IAG prices a ~9.6% through-cycle operating margin at our 9.0% WACC, our bear case, against 13.6% in 2023-25 and a 12-15% company target; if the 2027 margin holds at 12% or better with Brent near $100, the shares should re-rate toward EUR 7.09. A 2027 margin below 11% would falsify this
How we value it
We value International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. using 70% FCFF DCF (WACC 9.04%, g 2.0%, 7-yr) + 30% EV/EBITDA 4.14x on 2027E EBITDA, IFRS 16 lease-inclusive. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
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