Independent equity research
Is IonQ (IONQ) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
IonQ — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$27.00
To fair value
−27%
By · report dated 2026-08-11 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
IonQ is buying revenue growth at a gross margin that can never cover its cost base: revenue rose 287% YoY in Q2 FY26 while gross profit fell 43% versus Q4 FY25, and the SkyWater deal permanently anchors blended gross margin near 30%
How we value it
We value IonQ using Sum-of-the-parts on FY27E revenue; quantum at 18-25x sales, foundry at 2.5x, less the warrant claim. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full IonQ report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.