Independent equity research
Is Nestlé (NESN) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Nestlé — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
CHF 88.00
To fair value
+13%
By · report dated 2026-08-21 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Nestlé de-rated 8% on an in-line H1 that showed a fourth straight quarter of improving RIG. We are buyers at 17.8x 2026E underlying EPS for CHF 3bn of cost savings and CHF 2.8bn of Waters proceeds landing by 2027; we are wrong if RIG falls back below 1% or FY26 UTOP margin misses 16.1%
How we value it
We value Nestlé using 18.5x 2027E underlying EPS; cross-checked on 10-yr FCFE DCF at 5.2% CHF COE. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Nestlé report
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